By Thiago de Aragao.

Riding a rollercoaster, being afraid and knowing that everything will be fine in the end is rather exciting and generates some healthy adrenaline. Riding another rollercoaster, with loose tracks and poor infrastructure, and nevertheless managing to be safe in the end, is a priceless lesson for the future.

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By Thiago de Aragao.

Nobody should be surprised at the result of the referendum on autonomy held on Sunday, May 04, in the province of Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia. The highly anticipated "Yes" victory, to be confirmed by the end of the week when the vote's official results are due to be released, has led to reactions by Bolivia's central government and by the Santa Cruz government too, which did not expect a different result.

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By Thiago de Aragao.

Oil prices at $120 per barrel allow Hugo Chávez to do many things he would not normally be capable of. Venezuela, historically dependent on their greatest blessing, oil surpluses, has never developed other industries to help the country grow stronger, more developed and self-sufficient. Huge oil reserves have made the Venezuelan government and high society fond of imports.

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By Thiago de Aragao.

This March was one of the most exciting months in the latest years as far as South America is concerned. The diplomatic row between Colombia and Ecuador, with a gratuitous cameo by Venezuela, was certainly the month's greatest event. The troop movements, the hard stance taken by Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez, and the apologies for invading Ecuadorian soil on the part of Colombian president Álvaro Uribe have left their mark in the continent's diplomacy this month.

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By Thiago de Aragao.

Latin America came to a halt during recent weeks, to witness the crisis between Colombia and Ecuador, featuring an over-the-top intromission by Hugo Chávez's Venezuela.

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By Thiago de Aragao.

The month in Latin America – January 2008

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By Thiago de Aragao.

A special report from Thiago de Aragão on travelling in the entourage Of President Lula of Brazil to visit the unique Venezuela of President Hugo Chavez.

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By Thiago de Aragao.

Beyond any doubt, the election of Cristina Kirchner in Argentina stood out as the most important political event last October.

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By Thiago de Aragao.

September saw a series of political developments across the South American continent. No new events emerged, however, and instead progress was made on issues that had arisen in previous months.

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Date: Monday 18 June

Time: 6pm

Venue: Grand Committee Room, House of Commons, SW1

The Foreign Policy Centre, the Fabian Society and the Young Fabians jointly held a debate on the prospects for Middle East peace in the House of Commons.

Hilary Benn MP, International Development Secretary,was among the speakers, alongside expert voices on the conflict and how to end it.

The event launched the new Fabian freethinking paper How Peace Broke Out in the Middle East: A short history of the future by Tony Klug. The paper is generating an extraordinary and positive response from a wide range of commentators, academics and government and civil society voices.

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

Time to upgrade its action plan, argues Dick Leonard

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

No gridlock – so far. How the EU has adapted to enlargement.

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

Constitutional debate must not be monopolized by governments, argues Ecas

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

Serb voters could speed or delay Ahtisaari plan

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

Don't rush into it, suggests Dick Leonard

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By Alex Bigham. Source: The Guardian's Comment is Free

After meeting on the rugby pitch for their annual match, Fiji's police and army found themselves on opposite sides of a coup d'etat.

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By Alex Bigham. Source: The Guardian Comment is Free

A new order is taking shape in the Middle East with Iran and Syria at its centre, but will human rights and democracy be the losers?

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

Anyone visiting Turkey after an interval of several years, as I did last week, cannot fail to be impressed by the visible evidence of the transformation of the Turkish economy. With its high annual growth rate (8 per cent in the past year), and its energetic, enterprising, and, above all, youthful workforce, it is catching up fast with the EU, and there can be little doubt that it will have overtaken the GDP per capita of several existing member states over the next decade.

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By Dick Leonard.

It is now nearly two years since the first action plans were approved under the European Neighbourhood Policy, and perhaps not too early to assess the results so far. The German presidency, which takes over in January, is anxious to raise the ENP's profile, and the Commission will be producing a report, with recommendations, next month.

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By Richard Gowan. Source: The Globalist

As the United Nations prepares to replace its leader of the past ten years, Ghana's Kofi Annan, with Ban Ki Moon of South Korea, the organisation may be experiencing an eastward shift in more than just the Secretary General's office. As Richard Gowan notes, the UN's peacekeeping focus is already shifting from Africa to the Middle East.

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By Richard Gowan. Source: E-Sharp September-October 2006

Links between the EU and the UN have flourished under Kofi Annan. With his tenure about to expire, Richard Gowan looks at the implications for Europe of the search for his successor

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By Dick Leonard.

Exit Tony Blair, enter Gordon Brown: good news or bad for the European Union?

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By Thiago de Aragao.

After the elections of the July 2nd, the situation in Mexico gives the impression of being better, but it is just an impression.

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By Dick Leonard.

This year's EU-China summit, scheduled for 8-9 September, in Helsinki, may well see a determined effort from the EU side to put the relationship on a new footing. Both trade commissioner Peter Mandelson, and his external relations colleague, Benita Waldner-Ferrero, have been conducting fundamental policy reviews which are likely to lead to a proposal to replace the 1985 agreement, which has hitherto governed relations between the two sides.

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By Alex Bigham (Ed.).

Baluchistan Seminar Report

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By Thiago de Aragao.

Date: Monday 3 July 2006

Alan Garcia's Background

The victory of the social democrat Alan Garcia in Peru is of no less concern for the South American community than the victory of the extreme-nationalist Ollanta Humala would have been. The reason for such concern, besides the ruinous government of Alan Garcia between 1985 and 1990 in Peru, is the image it presents to the world. In recent speeches, Garcia stated he would not hesitate to close the Congress if his projects were opposed.

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By Richard Gowan. Source: The Globalist

26 June 2006

The run up to the 2007 elections in France are bound to be a bitter, hard-fought contest. Though France has no need for a mass conscription army, Richard Gowan writes that the military may become a central campaign issue. In fact, socialist candidate Ségolène Royal is recommending one in an effort to give the government a new option in dealing with civil unrest among its rebellious youth.

Whenever French youth take to the streets, as in March this year, it is not long before Anglo-Saxon commentators are citing "the legacy of 1789" and "the spirit of 1968."

These dates, they imply, demonstrate the anarchic underpinnings of France's politics. But recent Parisian political debate has echoed another tradition stretching back to the 18th century: the idea of the French citizen not as a revolutionary — but as a soldier.

Those who believe Europe has lost its taste for the armed forces may be surprised to see the run-up to next year's French presidential election take a distinctly martial turn.

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By Alex Bigham. Source: The Spectator

24th June 2006

Is there another Iran? One where people care about things other than turning yellowcake into uranium hexafluoride gas? One where the fashion accessories are not just nuclear worker's face masks or chadors? One where the price of watermelons is more keenly debated than the scale of the Holocaust?

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By Alex Bigham. Source: The Guardian Comment is Free

The United Nations needs to realise that it can't solve all the world's problems. There are better and more effective agencies to do the tasks of peace building and peace keeping.

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By Alex Bigham. Source: The Guardian Comment is Free

In the hall of mirrors, Iran may quietly be welcoming Washington's offer of talks.

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

When the European Constitutional treaty was effectively killed off by French and Dutch voters last year, it appeared to be a black day for the rights of EU citizens. Consigned to the rubbish bin were not only a whole raft of provisions designed to make the EU a more effective actor in the world, but also the Charter of Fundamental Rights which would have been incorporated into European law.

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By Thiago de Aragao.

South America's poorest country is back at the centre of attention in the region. Evo Morales' historic electoral victory has signaled the onset of a government that combines indigenous nationalism and a typically Latin American left-wing populism. Bolivia has always been tightly dependent on foreign investments to compensate for its managerial ineptitude and an inability to take advantage of its own natural resources. This has fostered an influx of foreign capital which has contributed significantly to the maintenance of the country, albeit in a precarious fashion.

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By James Royston. Source: Diplo Magazine

The West must recognise the legitimacy of Latin America's new generation of democratically elected leaders, despite their divergent politics.

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By Thiago de Aragao.

Recent events in Brazilian politics are analysed, and potential future scenarios are assessed.

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

On May 16 the European Commission and the European Central Bank will meet to consider the applications of Slovenia and Lithuania to join the Eurozone on 1 January 2007. The hot tip is that Slovenia will be accepted, but Lithuania will not.

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By Thiago de Aragao.

Recent events in Brazilian politics are analysed, and potential future scenarios are assessed.

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By Thiago de Aragao.

Recent events in Brazilian politics are analysed, and potential future scenarios are assessed.

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By Thiago de Aragao.

Recent events in Brazilian politics are analysed, and potential future scenarios are assessed.

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By Thiago de Aragao.

A review of the past week in Brazilian politics.

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By Thiago de Aragao.

Thiago de Aragao lays out the proposed reforms of nine South American states, and explains their characteristics.

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By Dick Leonard, Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

A rare chink of light in the gloomy Cyprus situation is the agreement, just reached, between Tassos Papadopoulos, the President of the Republic of Cyprus, and his Turkish Cypriot counterpart, Mehmet Ali Talat to meet in Nicosia. Their talks will be confined to talks to discussing the fate of more than 2,000 Greek and Turkish Cypriots missing since the 1974 Greek Cypriot coup and the subsequent Turkish invasion.

Could this act as an ice-breaker to persuade both sides to resume meaningful negotiations on bringing an end to the division of the island? Hopes for this are not very high, and a new report by the International Crisis Group, entitled The Cyprus Stalemate: What Next? concludes that the short-term prospects of a constitutional settlement are not good.

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

In June the Swiss government will be publishing a fundamental reappraisal of its relationship with the EU which could – but probably won't – lead to a reactivation of its membership application.

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By Philip Fiske de Gouveia. Source: The Guardian

Washington's plan to expand Farsi-language TV and radio broadcasts may fuel the media equivalent of an arms race

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By Chris Forster. Source: The Foreign Policy Centre

Can democracy stop terrorism? In George Bush's State of the Union address he reiterated his Administration's policy that Americans had to support democratic efforts in the Middle East as the best means to securing peace and defeating organisations such as al-Qaeda. Yet questions are already arising as to whether this is proving to be the most appropriate course of action.

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

In a recent meeting in Vienna with Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel, Graham Watson, the leader of the Liberal and Democrat group (ALDE) in the European Parliament, set out three priority issues on which it hopes that progress will be made during the six-month Austrian presidency.

One of these was to ensure that the small Vienna-Based EU Monitoring Centre on Racism and Xenophobia (EUMC) should become a fully-fledged EU Fundamental Rights Agency. This had been agreed in principle at an EU summit in December 2003, but so far little has been done to bring it about.

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By Chris Forster. Source: The Foreign Policy Centre

"Europe has broken down!" Our only hope seems either to call for repairs or ditch it by the side of the road and start walking. This is because some see the European Union as a complex machine. If regulations are pouring out of the European Parliament, if candidate countries are lining up to become members and if national governments are agreeing to budgets and treaties then it is running smoothly. When they are not it is broken and needs mending, or in some minds abandoning altogether.

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By Chris Forster. Source: The Foreign Policy Centre

Take a straw poll in any European country about which country was the most reluctant member of the European Union and invariably you would have a haystack of opinion pitch-forked upon the United Kingdom. Self-interested Britons, under the leadership of that 'Machiavellian' Tony Blair, have been ruthless in compromising away their rebate, devilish in their rhetoric for a more competitive and prosperous Europe, and utterly exclusionist in their embracing of the former communist countries of Eastern Europe into the Union.

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

It is 21 years since Greenland, the only territory ever to vote to withdraw from the European Union, ceased to be part of the Union. Officially a region of Denmark (but with extensive powers of self-government), a hard-fought referendum in November 1983 resulted in a 52-48 per cent decision to pull out.

Since January 1985, relations with the EU have been regulated by an agreement reached between the Greenlandic and Danish governments and the EU. The island, whose land area is substantially greater than that of Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain combined, but whose population is a mere 56,000 (mostly Inuit), lost the right to receive help from the EU structural funds.

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

Tony Blair showed much of his old negotiating skills at last week's EU summit when, at the third attempt, he finally produced compromise proposals on the financial perspectives for 2007-2013 which all his 24 fellow national leaders could live with. This was only after considerable prodding, notably from new German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Commission President José Manuel Barroso.

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On September 15 2005, Stuart Fraser of the Corporation of London gave a welcoming address at the launch of the FPC's Energy Security Programme.

He commented:

Tonight, with the launch of Re-engineering the Home Front, I believe we are taking the first steps in the construction of an atlas which will show us the way to a secure and prosperous future.

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

How many 'Polish plumbers' have come to France and other EU15 countries, under-cutting the wages of native workers and boosting the unemployment figures? A great deal fewer than the public (and French and Dutch voters in particular) appear to believe, while the predicted massive increase of migrants from Eastern Europe, following EU enlargement in May 2004, has just not happened, according to a new report from the European Citizen Action Service (ECAS).

Written by Julianna Traser, and entitled Who's afraid of EU enlargement?, it reviews the situation a year after the entry of the eight countries concerned. Unfortunately, five of the EU15 states (Belgium, Italy, Luxembourg, Spain and Portugal) failed to provide any statistical information, so the survey is restricted to the remaining ten 'old' members and the eight new ones.

Cyprus and Malta are also excluded, as their citizens were granted unrestricted access to EU labour markets from Day One of their membership. The other eight new members were made subject to transitional measures, running at the maximum until 2011, which the EU15 countries were permitted to apply. Only Sweden chose not to do so.

The consequence is that four different labour market regimes are now being applied in Western Europe;

• Restrictive, with would-be migrants being treated in the same way as non-EEA citizens (Belgium, Finland, Germany, Greece, France, Luxembourg and Spain).
• Restrictive, with a quota system being applied (Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal).
• General labour access with limited welfare benefits (Ireland, UK).
• No restrictions (Sweden).

The report does indeed show that the three countries applying no restrictions received more immigrants than the others, but the flow was much less than anticipated, was confined mostly to 'hard to fill' jobs, and there was no evidence that it led to any increase in unemployment. Furthermore, the much touted 'benefit tourists' notably failed to put in an appearance. Sweden, for example, which received some 21,800 workers up to the end of December 2004, paid out only a total of €18,000 in social assistance.

Although Ireland, which suffers from serious labour shortages, was the most popular target country, in relation to its own population, it was the United Kingdom which received the largest number of migrant workers. The official estimate was 175,000, or 0.4 per cent of the labour force, though research by a German-based think-tank suggests that the real figure is far lower – around 50,000.

Of the migrants to Britain, 82 per cent were aged 18-34, 60 per cent were male, and only 5 per cent of the registered workers had dependents in their charge. Large numbers of Polish and Czech electricians, plasterers, bricklayers and carpenters were recruited for the construction industry, which suffers from severe labour shortages.

The British National Health Service also took advantage of the opportunity to recruit highly qualified staff for posts it was finding difficult to fill. Dentists and anaesthetists were particularly welcome, a development which has caused fears of a 'brain drain', especially in Hungary and Poland.

Many fewer job-seekers came to France, which issued only 9,994 work permits to nationals of the new member states between May and December 2004. Nor was this surprising, as, for example, only 3 per cent of Poles claim to speak French, while 21 per cent speak English and 16 per cent German. Nevertheless, the high unemployment rate stoked fears which were unjustified by the facts on the ground. There are, undoubtedly, some Polish plumbers in France, but not very many of them.

Another reason why relatively few East Europeans have come to work in France is the formidable bureaucratic barriers which they face, and which only the most motivated or desperate try to surmount. Yet the main reason why the flows of migrants has been so much lower than expected, to the EU as a whole and not only to France, is the booming economies of the new member states, whose growth rate is twice that of the EU15.

This appears to be repeating the earlier experience of Spanish and Portuguese membership, when severe transitional measures were imposed, and were later found to be unnecessary as both Spain and Portugal experienced enhanced growth, largely helped by the structural programmes of the EU. Both these countries now import as much labour as they export.

Under the terms of the membership agreements, the Commission is due to report in 2006 on the effect, so far, of the transitional measures. This should not be regarded as a routine matter. It is essential it conducts in-depth research, with the full co-operation of all 25 governments, before producing its recommendations. The ECAS report is a valuable indicator, but its lack of resources and imperfect access to national statistics, must to some extent limit its validity.

The Commission must also make a major effort to publicise the results of its own study in order to counter the widespread misconceptions thrown up by the referendum campaigns in France and the Netherlands, which undoubtedly exist in other member states as well. Unfortunately, however, it will probably only be when countries like France and Germany have taken the necessary painful steps to remedy their unemployment problems that the scapegoating of Eastern European workers will come to an end.

• Dick Leonard is the author of The Economist Guide to the European Union.

By Richard Gowan. Source: The Globalist, 24 October 2005

Plagued by image problems around the globe, the United States could use some good news. Such an image boost may be forthcoming from an unlikely place — the Balkans. Richard Gowan explains how Kosovars are still grateful for U.S. actions in the late 1990s — and how prudent U.S. policies are steering Kosovo and the rest of the Balkans in generally the right direction.

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By Sarah Schaefer. Source: Sunday Telegraph

For me, Gerhard Schröder's election as Chancellor in 1998 will always be a treasured political memory. I was standing in a bar in Blackpool at the Labour Party conference - I was a political correspondent in those days - when my mobile phone rang. It was my father, calling from Berlin to give me the amazing news that, after 15 years of CDU government, the tide had finally turned. America had Clinton; Britain had Blair; and now Germany had Schröder.

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By Chris Forster.

With Tony Blair in Brussels arguing that to save our ideals we must adapt them, what are the prospects for Europe to find principles common to all 450 million European citizens? The differences between the values of the Spanish and the Slovenians could be considered as stark as between the English and French. This is not to say we have nothing in common, but that our ideals form part of our identity. The results from the recent referendums in France and Holland have made it clear that there is currently no agreed vision of what it is to be 'European'. Yet there do exist fundamental ideals that we can all support, shedding hope on the future of a European identity.

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

The right-centre coalition government in Norway seems destined for defeat in the general election to be held next Monday (12 September). The three-party coalition of Conservatives, Christian Democrats and Liberals, led by the Christian Democrat, Kjell Magne Bondevik, a Lutheran priest, is credited with a mere 26.7 per cent of the votes in the most recent opinion poll, published last week in Dagbladet, Norway's leading newspaper.

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By Seema Desai. Source: OpenDemocracy

China's membership of the G8 could be the emerging superpower's next step, but will it be enough to save the

body from irrelevance?

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By Seema Desai. Source: The Foreign Policy Centre

China and India are frequently mentioned in the same sentence, but little of the frenzied analysis of their phenomenal growth dwells long on how improved relations between these two long hostile countries might add to this. The state visit to New Delhi this month by the Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao, is probably one of the most significant diplomatic events of the decade so far for India; while in China it was billed as the most important landmark of the year. Yet the potential implications for the global economic and political system are greater still. Closer Sino-Indian economic cooperation would impact greatly on both the developed and developing worlds.

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By Dr Greg Austin. Source: The Scotsman, 17 June

In France, the race is on to determine who is to blame for the dramas over the "European project". Jacques Chirac is at Tony Blair's throat over the EU budget rebate to Britain, but he is also under fire at home on many fronts, and from all sides.

It is almost impossible now to talk of a single French vision of the European project, and Chirac is using his all-too- typical theatrics over Europe as a smokescreen for his dire domestic troubles.

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By Dr Greg Austin. Source: The Globalist, 16 June

The EU plans to lift the arms ban imposed on China and the U.S. Congress has reacted in disbelief. The U.S. legislators are outraged at what they see as the willingness of European allies to provide arms to a country that U.S. forces would have to fight in the event of a China-Taiwan war. This article examines the tense relations between the transatlantic alliance.

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By Lucy Ahad. Source: Whitehall and Westminster World, 17 May

To our travel-savvy continental neighbours, Britain's train delays, eye-wateringly expensive fares, overcrowded motorways and inner city jams are like a trip back in time. But while the chaotic state of our transport network might seem an odd but touching eccentricity to visitors, to millions of UK commuters it's a daily source of misery, time-wasting – and puzzlement.

Quite why Britain, the world's fourth-largest economy, does not have a transport network to match is not readily explained in terms of geography. Britain doesn't face the same challenges of distance, climate and topography as other European countries like France or Scandinavia. Other things being equal, Britons have less distance to travel; yet still they spend significantly longer commuting to work every day than their European counterparts – 45 minutes each way on average, ten minutes more than the French and twice as much as Italians.

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By Jennifer Moll. Source: International Herald Tribune, 20 April

There is little doubt that Putin's government is in an unenviable position of having to find a way to reassert the authority of the weak and corrupt Russian state.

It does not follow, however, that Europe should stand back and watch as Putin centralizes power and damages the prospects for Russia's democratic and economic development. It is precisely because Russia is the West's "strategic partner" that we must take an active interest in its fate.

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By Andrew Small. Source: China Review, Spring 2005

When Yu Yongding made a few remarks about China's holdings of US government debt to a group of students in Shanghai, he could hardly have expected his talk to send the dollar tumbling in the international currency markets. 'It's incredible. I'm just an unimportant academic!' he laughed as I caught up with him at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) before his departure to Switzerland for the World Economic Forum.

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice

EU countries collectively spend almost 180 billion EUR per year on defence; more than half the US total of 330 billion EUR, and have many more men under arms. Yet it became apparent during the Kosovo War – if not long before – that the EU's actual capacity is a great deal less than half that of the US.

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By Andrew Geddes. Source: The Sud-Deutsche Zeitung, 20 April 2005

Inward migration is often touted as the solution to Europe's skills shortage and growing pensions deficit. Many experts argue that, far from creating a social burden, the arrival of ambitious people eager to work, learn and further themselves injects desperately-needed youth and dynamism into Europe's ageing societies and sluggish economic growth. But another contribution to meeting Europe's genuine need for labour would be to improve the participation and employment rates of Europe's existing population, including those non-EU nationals who are already living in Europe with work permits, but who struggle to find work appropriate to their skills or potential.

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The latest on FPC research, publications and events

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By Dr Greg Austin. Source: 31 March 2005, The Globalist

Is the United Nations in any shape to face current global security challenges? Or has the gap between the West and the rest become too wide to realistically reflect the demands of a changing international order? Greg Austin and Ken Berry argue that the UN's High Level Panel on Reform falls far short of the full-scale reformation really needed.

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has had his High Level Panel on UN Reform. And Jeff Sachs has issued his report on accelerating progress towards achievement of the Millennium Development Goals.

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By Jennifer Moll. Source: FPC Analysis, April 2005

Five years after President Putin's accession to power, portraying Russia as a friend of the West, sharing values and a mutual commitment to democracy, is increasingly difficult to defend. As President Bush pointedly remarked at last month's summit with Putin in Bratislava: 'Democracies have certain things in common - a rule of law and protection of minorities, and a free press and a viable political opposition.' Putin's recent moves to reassert the power of the Kremlin and tamper with the independence of both media and judiciary suggest that none of the items on President Bush's list are now guaranteed in Russia. Added to the mounting evidence of Russia's continued meddling in the internal affairs of its neighbours - namely in the Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova – this has led to a perceptible hardening in international opinion. Last month, the Foreign Affairs Select Committee in the UK parliament called on the government to take a tougher stance on Russia's violations of human and democratic rights more generally, instead of confining censure to the ongoing problems in Chechnya.

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By Shairi Mathur. Source: 31 March 2005 India News in Europe

Post-liberalisation, the Indian economy has become an attractive destination for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Potential foreign investors are lured by the size of the Indian market, low labour costs and an educated pool of management and technical personnel, stable legal system and finally, strategic location of India for expanding into Asian markets.

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice 18 march 2005

The EU heads of state and government, who meet again at their spring summit in Brussels next week, are extremely unlikely to hold a secret ballot to determine who is their least popular colleague. Yet if they did, there is little no doubt that Cyprus President Tassos Papadopoulos would be the universal choice.

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By Jennifer Moll. Source: Open Democracy 14 March 2005

If, as Mary Dejevsky has asserted in The West gets Putin wrong, Vladimir Putin is the best that the West can hope for in the current Russian political climate, it is from this knowledge that the West must press for positive changes in Russia.

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By Lucy Ahad. Source: Whitehall & Westminster World 8 March 05

2005 has been officially declared the year of Africa. Tony Blair has stated and restated his determination to use the UK's double presidencies of the EU and of the G8, two of the international organisations with the most development clout, to push Africa's plight up the international agenda. He has signalled intent by charging a high-level Commission for Africa, on which he sits along with chancellor Gordon Brown, to come up with "fresh" thinking on how to solve the continent's many challenges.

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By Jack Thurston. Source: European Voice 24 February 2005

While 2005 has already seen the implementation of a major change in Europe's farm policy, the pressure for further reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be unrelenting in the months ahead.

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By Joshua Cooper Ramo. Source: Financial Times, 18 February 2005

In 1915, the Austrian scientist Erwin Schrodinger developed a thought experiment to demonstrate the incompleteness of quantum physics when it moves from explaining the subatomic world to the larger systems we can observe with our eyes. Schrodinger proposed putting a cat inside an opaque box wired with a small, poison gas-release system. The gas-release mechanism would be triggered by the state of a particle inserted into a measuring device: a positively charged particle would result in a dead cat, say, while a negative charge would do nothing. But the state of the particle was unknown to begin with.

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By Keith Didcock. Source: Labour Friends of India newsletter

Given our historic links with India, it is easy for the UK to feel complacent about the future of Indo-British relations. A seamless transition from rosy memories of the sunset of empire to Bend It Like Beckham and Bride and Prejudice suggest that the relationship can continue to glide smoothly along, accommodating changing fashions as it goes. The world, however, is changing and Indo-British relations are being shaped by two forces which mean that the UK's approach to its relations with India must change too.

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By Rouzbeh Pirouz. Source: Financial Times, 16 February 2005

The heartening spectacle of millions of Iraqis defying violence to go to the ballot box recalls similar scenes in Afghanistan and the Palestinian territories.

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice, 3 February 2005

The main business of the spring EU summit, in Brussels on March 22-23, will be the discussion on how to put the fading Lisbon process back on track, in the light of the devastating report by former Dutch Premier Wim Kok.

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By Richard Gowan. Source: The Globalist, 14 January 2005

Africa's ongoing crisis — from the genocide in Darfur to civil conflicts in other countries — continues to defy easy solutions. Richard Gowan of the Foreign Policy Centre argues that the EU should partner with the African Union to provide security and stability. He outlines how an organization modeled on the role NATO played during the Cold War could get the job done for Africa.

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By Rt Hon Hilary Benn MP. Source: FPC Event, 10 January 2005

Thank you very much for inviting me. I apologise for not being able to stay very long. I returned at 05:00 this morning from three days in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka. I hope it does not sound odd or discourteous, but I must confess that I found it rather difficult to turn my mind to the subject we're discussing this morning, because it is still full of things – terrible things – I saw, stories I heard, eyes I looked into – some full of tears, some of them blank, some of them empty.

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By Sir Samuel Brittan. Source: FPC event, 10 January 2005

Hilary Benn has described himself as a Benn rather than a Bennite. I thought of describing myself as a Brittan rather than a Brittanite; but I don't think this works quite as well with my own surname!

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By Richard Youngs. Source: Süddeutsche Zeitung, 15 December 2004

Please click on the PDF version to read this article in German.

Interim Prime Minister Allawi's attack on "spectator" nations during his recent visit to Brussels is a measure of the frustration felt over Europe's stance on Iraq. Since the US-led invasion of March 2003, European opponents of the war have chosen to remain on the sidelines of reconstruction. Despite the formal handover of power to an interim government this summer, a comprehensive EU plan for assistance has still not been formulated.

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice, 13 January 2005

Last month, the EU quietly took over from NATO responsibility for maintaining law and order in Bosnia-Herzogovina. Should it now prepare also to replace NATO's K-For in Kosovo, or even – as German Christian Democratic MEP Doris Pack recently suggested – assume a protectorate for the territory in place of UNMIK (the United Nations Interim Administration in Kosovo)?

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The latest on the FPC's research, publications and events

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By James Page. Source: The New Statesman, 13 December 2004

James Page was the winner of the 2004 Webb Essay competition with this essay. The essay question was Can democracy be exported?

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By Jack Straw. Source: FPC event

Let me start by thanking the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Foreign Policy Centre for inviting me to speak at this seminar. This is now the second event which the two organisations have held together, in what is a growing collaboration between them.

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice, 2 December 2004

At last week's meeting of the Ecofin Council of Economic and Finance Ministers, the first shots were fired in the battle to set the EU's spending limits for the period 2007-2013. Much the heaviest salvo came from Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown.

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By Herbert Oberhaensli. Source: Wall Street Journal Europe, 22 Nov 2004

The debate about globalization has become increasingly polarized. The anti-globalization or anti-capitalism lobby likes to conjure up images of ruthless corporations urging governments to lower trade barriers in their pursuit for new markets and ever new ways to make a profit. Businesses, particularly those from the industrialized world, they imply, are the only ones to prosper from free trade and so the only ones eager to bring it about. Consumers and workers, meanwhile, pick up the tab. The reality is very different.

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By Rob Blackhurst. Source: Middle Eastern Review

Rob Blackhurst reviews Dan Plesch's latest book.

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice, 14 October 2004

On Monday (11 October), EU foreign ministers, meeting in Luxembourg, reached a series of decisions which could breathe new life into the largely dormant relationship between the European Union and Serbia-Montenegro. This followed last week's visit to Belgrade by External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten and High Representative Javier Solana, and closely followed their recommendations.

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By Rouzbeh Pirouz. Source: Open Democracy, 12 October 2004

The dark heart of Abu Ghraib reveals the contradiction between America's fine words and degrading deeds in Iraq, says Rouzbeh Pirouz.

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Source: The Moscow Times, 30 September 2004

As citizens of the Euro-Atlantic community of democracies, we wish to express our sympathy and solidarity with the people of the Russian Federation in their struggle against terrorism. The mass murderers who seized School No. 1 in Beslan committed a heinous act of terrorism for which there can be no rationale or excuse. While other mass murderers have killed children and unarmed civilians, the calculated targeting of so many innocent children at school is an unprecedented act of barbarism that violates the values and norms of our community and which all civilized nations must condemn.

At the same time, we are deeply concerned that these tragic events are being used to further undermine democracy in Russia.

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By Richard Gowan. Source: E!Sharp, October 2004

What does a little Englander look like?

Ask most Europeans to visualise a typical British Eurosceptic and they will probably conjure up a young man with cropped hair, numerous tattoos and an unhelpful attitude towards foreign policemen. The reality is rather different.

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By Mark Leonard. Source: The Guardian, 11 September 2004

In my local curry house I was greeted like a long-lost friend. A huddle of young waiters gesticulated excitedly towards me. Eventually I realised they were pointing at my bag, picked up during a recent trip to China, and emblazoned with the Chinese script for Shanghai. "You've been to China," they said, "China have just put a man in space - they're taking over from America."

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By Mark Leonard. Source: The Guardian, 11 September 2004

By 2020 China will be on the verge of superseding the US as the world's leading economic power. Time for the US to wake up and smell the soy sauce, reckons Mark Leonard.

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By Mark Leonard. Source: New Statesman, 9 September 2004

Each man kills the thing he loves - and so it could be with Tony Blair and Europe. For ten years the Prime Minister has promised to "settle" Britain's ambivalent relationship with the EU. But he must now admit that he could become a liability to the European cause - provoking otherwise neutral voters to vote against the constitution simply to spite him.

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By Giles Radice. Source: The Financial Times, 6 September 2004

The significance of the referendum on the constitutional treaty for the European Union is clear. A majority Yes vote would not only help improve the efficient working of the European Union (to Britain's benefit as well as that of other members) but also greatly consolidate British membership and influence inside the EU. A No vote would be a famous victory for the Eurosceptics, strengthening the hand of those who want Britain to negotiate a weaker, more tenuous relationship with Europe or even leave the EU altogether.

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By Jack Thurston. Source: New Statesman, 30 August 2004

Direct democracy was born in the ancient Athenian city state but soon fell into disuse, only to be revived 2,000 years later by the republican idealism (or mob rule, depending on your view) of the American frontier. Could it be about to come home?

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By Rob Blackhurst. Source: The Financial Times, 27th August 2004

The French foreign ministry's plans to relocate from a historic building on the Quai D'Orsay in Paris to a utilitarian block on the city's outskirts should challenge stereotypes about lavish Gallic officialdom. In many diplomatic services, however, the belief persists that grand buildings abroad matter.

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By Fiona Hill. Source: The Globalist, 26th August 2004

Russia is back on the global strategic and economic map. For starters, it has regained the prominence in global energy markets it enjoyed in the 1970s and 1980s, when the Soviet Union - not Saudi Arabia — was the preeminent world oil producer. But Russia now has a "new soft power" role that extends far beyond its energy resources.

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By Ceren Coskun.

Suits and Uniforms: Turkish Foreign Policy since the Cold War, Philip Robins

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By Dr Greg Austin. Source: The Globe and Mail, 30th July 2004

The Sudanese government and Arab militias will only respond to direct threats and payoffs.

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By Rob Blackhurst. Source: New Statesman, Monday 26th July 2004

Most voters don't care about foreign policy. Muslims do, and the results could be dramatic.

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By Jack Thurston. Source: The Guardian, Saturday July 24 2004

The Tour de France through the prism of transatlantic rivalry.

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By John Audley. Source: International Herald Tribune, 22/07/2004

The Foreign Policy Centre were partners with the German Marshall Fund on the launch of their work on trade and public opinion.

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice, 15 July 2004

It is almost five years since the special summit, at Tampere in Finland, where EU leaders committed themselves to establishing an area of "freedom, justice and security". Under the Dutch presidency, they are due to review the progress made and agree a blueprint for Justice and Home Affairs for the second five years.

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By Richard Gowan and Rob Blackhurst.

Pro-European's should not despair. UKIP's triumph was a perfect storm that won't be repeated.

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By Mark Leonard. Source: The Financial Times, 26th June 2004

The assertive policy of George W. Bush was supported by three factions that are now blaming eachother for the mess in Iraq. What went wrong with the 'Bush Revolution' -and is the US on the verge of isolationism again? Contact Mark at markhleonard@aol.com with your comments.

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By Dick Leonard. Source: European Voice, 4 June 2004

Next week's summit should discuss the EU's long-term financial perspectives.

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By Richard Youngs. Source: Carnegie Endowment , June 2004

Deliberation of democracy promotion in the Middle East intensified after the attacks of 9/11, and has been further energized by the transatlantic debates that were progeny of the Iraqi conflict. More intense debate over support for political change in the Middle East has forced the U.S. and Europe into a closer exploration of each other's actual and intended approaches to democracy promotion in the region.

http://www.ceip.org/files/pdf/CP45.YOUNGS.final.PDF

By Rouzbeh Pirouz and Rob Blackhurst.

Away from CNN dispatches from Gaza and Najaf, there are underreported signs that the Middle East - frozen politically and economically for decades - is thawing.

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By Dr Greg Austin.

Why Is Hamid Karzai, the leader of strife torn Afghanistan, taking time to go to Tashkent in Uzbekistan this week?

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By Rouzbeh Pirouz.

Perhaps it was fitting that I was in America when Ronald Reagan died. As is their habit, sometimes endearing and sometimes unnerving, Americans quickly moved to the gear they know best: overkill.

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By Rob Blackhurst. Source: Tuesday 18 May 2004

Energy policy has traditionally been the stuff of domestic politics. Governments in the past could pull the levers and decide which energy sources should fuel the economy. They made their decisions for a mixture of scientific, economic and pragmatic reasons – there were unions that needed to be squared, consumers that needed to be kept happy, and jobs that needed to be maintained.

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By Joshua Cooper Ramo. Source: The Financial Times

China has discovered its own economic consensus.

Friday 7 May 2004

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By Phoebe Griffith. Source: Global Thinking, Spring 2004

The world's two largest democracies – India and the US – go to the polls this year. But when it comes to political rhetoric about free trade and jobs, the contrasts are stark. While both Republicans and Democrats fret about the deracination of white collar America, Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee launched an election campaign called "India is Shining". Based on India's stunning 8% economic growth in the last quarter of 2004, the campaign is characterised by its feel-good factor. Outsourcing plays a role in both elections.

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By Phoebe Griffith. Source: March 2004, The Foreign Policy Centre

One of the earliest announcements of the Bush camp's re-election campaign was the introduction of a temporary worker scheme. Although questions about the reality of the promise started to emerge soon after, at the time this transparent attempt to win over the Latino vote was declared a landmark victory for US business and migration activists. But judging from the beam on the face of his Mexican counterpart, President Vicente Fox, Mexico's government seems to have emerged as the biggest winner.

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Jennifer Rankin was the winner of last year's Webb Essay competition. The essay question was 'Is the US a rogue state?'

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Click below to read the conference report of the Barrow Cadbury Trust /